Nelson Tasman a ‘little island’ of sunshine

If you think the sea has been warmer so far this summer, you are right - it’s up to two degrees Celsius warmer in some places around the Top of the South due to a long run of warm, sunny days through spring and early summer.

NIWA meteorologist and forecaster Ben Noll says the Top of the South has been a localised hot spot in the last part of the year, and swimmers and surfers have benefited with sea temperatures warming up earlier to 18 degrees by mid-December, and even up to 19 degrees in some bays.

“You seem to have been in your own little island in the Top of the South with your warm weather,” he says.

“Compared with other regions, you’ve had some pretty good weather.”

Ben says Nelson is tracking well to claim the title for the sunniest region in the country again, after losing the title for a couple of years.

Though, the year is not quite over yet.

While many other parts of the country have been tormented by dismal weather and storms through the year, the Top of the South has enjoyed a benign climate – apart from a tornado in April. It was the only blip in the weather this year, ripping a destructive path through the Moutere hills during a weather event that also delivered thunderstorms across the region.

Autumn ended up wetter than usual, but winter was drier and warmer. The region’s winter rainfall was between 50 and 79 per cent lower than normal and temperatures were above average. That continued through spring with between 60 and 80 per cent of the region’s normal rainfall, and again, slightly higher-than-average temperatures.

Ben says the region is drier earlier, but a drought is not a given. He says the region has been on “borrowed time” with its low rainfall and sunny weather through the year, as the forecasting shows there “could be the opportunity for some bigger rainfalls” in the early to mid-part of 2024.

It is too early to determine what that will look like, he says, but there may be relief on the horizon for farmers and growers.